736 
FXUS64 KMRX 250642
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Low afternoon relative humidity is expected once again this 
  afternoon.

- Near to above normal temperatures continue through Friday. Brief cooler
  period Saturday, gradually warming Sunday into the new week.

- Rain chances return Friday, mostly for locations along and north
  of I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Similar to yesterday night, a prominent ridge is in place over the 
western CONUS with troughing atop the eastern. A weak disturbance 
traversing mean flow aloft is promoting an increase in upr/mid level 
clouds. A few light returns can be periodically observed on regional 
radar, but none of this is anticipated to make it to the ground due 
to dry air in the low levels. 

Slightly above normal temperatures are expected this afternoon. The 
main focus being on continued poor fire weather conditions, with low 
minimum afternoon RHs once again. Thankfully winds will remain on 
the lighter side as 925-850mb flow is weak. However, with a more 
southwesterly wind direction, occasional gusts near 15kts will be 
possible in locations susceptible to funneling. 

Another weak disturbance traverses mean flow Thursday. Slightly 
enhanced H85 flow from the southwest will help afternoon RHs recover 
relative to previous days. Mostly dry conditions expected, with 
southwest Virginia having the best chance for an isolated very light 
rain.

A more pronounced vort max swings into the Great Lakes and Ohio 
Valley as we head into Friday. This will drive a cold front towards 
the region bringing increased rain chances. However, the front lacks 
potency due to ridging influence to our southwest. NAMBufr maintains 
a prominent inversion aloft throughout the day, resulting in little 
to no instability and poor effective shear. Thunder seems unlikely 
and rain amounts of a tenth or two are most probable along and north 
of I-40.

Cooler but drier air advection post FROPA Saturday. Day 5 SPC Fire 
Weather Outlook continues to highlight our southern areas as they 
are expected to get very little to no rain from the front. Low RHs 
and breezy winds could result in heightened fire weather concerns. 
Low afternoon RH seems likely Sunday as well, but winds look to 
trend lighter. Above normal temperatures return next work week. Low 
chances for precip return mid-next week, but confidence is low and 
strength of the southern CONUS ridge could very well prevent that 
from coming to fruition.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR, dry weather, calm overnight with mid to high clouds. S to SW
flow will build back in this afternoon, although winds will be
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  53  80  62 /   0  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  53  80  60 /   0  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  48  76  58 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS


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