ACUS01 KWNS 251159
SWODY1
SPC AC 251158

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Florida...

Even with nebulous/weak ascent aloft, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the FL
Peninsula along and south of a front. Moderate instability will
develop across parts of central FL with diurnal heating of a moist
low-level airmass, and occasional gusty winds and small hail could
occur with the stronger cores given the presence of rather cool
mid-level temperatures (around -12 to -14C at 500 mb). However, weak
low/mid-level flow and modest deep-layer shear should generally
limit the potential for organized severe thunderstorms.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...

Low-level moisture will continue to gradually stream northward
across parts of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley into the
Midwest/OH Valley through tonight. Some strengthening of a
west-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast this evening into early
Thursday morning across MO into IL/IN. Most guidance, with the
exception of the NAM (which is probably overdone with its depiction
of low-level moistening and related instability), suggests that
MUCAPE will struggle to exceed 500-750 J/kg. Even with strong
cloud-layer shear, this limited instability should temper the
overall severe hail threat with any elevated convection that may
develop this evening/overnight across IL/IN. Small hail appears
possible, though.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...

High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur this
afternoon across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent
northern/central Plains as an upper trough moves inland across the
Pacific Northwest and strong mid-level flow/large-scale ascent
overspreads these regions. Low-level moisture will be very limited
and MUCAPE is expected to remain meager (no more than 100-300 J/kg).
Even so, some lightning flashes may occur with this convection as it
spreads generally eastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Pacific Northwest...

Isolated, low-topped convection appears possible today mainly across
parts of WA as a mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the
Pacific Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and strong ascent
associated with a 100+ kt mid-level jet may support occasional
lightning flashes with this activity even though instability will
remain quite weak.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/25/2026

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