715 
FXUS64 KMRX 260643
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Relative humidities will improve today helping to lower fire 
  concerns.

- Light rain returns late Friday, generally for locations along
  and north of I-40. 

- General drought conditions continue next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A pattern shift will unfold over the next several days, beginning 
with warm conditions and transitioning into a cooler, more unsettled 
stretch through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to rebound to 
above-normal levels again by the middle of next week.

Overnight tonight, a strong midΓÇælevel ridge centered over the 
southern Plains will continue to expand eastward. As this ridge 
builds across the Tennessee Valley through Friday, rising heights 
aloft will support well above average temperatures, with some 
locations potentially reaching the mid 80s.

At lower levels, a lingering ridge over the Carolinas will keep the 
region dry with low RH values. A strengthening westerly low level 
jet late Thursday will begin to draw in modest moisture ahead of an 
approaching shortwave, though overall moisture return remains 
limited.

By Friday night into Saturday, the broader pattern becomes more 
dynamic as a cold front tied to an upper low over the northern U.S. 
pushes into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Guidance continues to 
show this system weakening as it drops southward, largely due to 
diminishing upper support and only marginal Gulf moisture. Even so, 
model soundings point to enough low level instability to support 
scattered showers, mainly north of Interstate 0. Behind the front, a 
surge of cooler Canadian air and increasing northwest winds will 
settle in for the weekend, bringing temperatures back down to more 
seasonable levels by Sunday.

Ahead of the front on Friday, the combination of anomalous warmth 
and afternoon humidity dipping below 30 percent will elevate fire 
danger, especially across the southern Tennessee Valley and the 
drought affected higher terrain of western North Carolina. After 
frontal passage, gusty northwest winds potentially reaching 20ΓÇô30 
mph in the Smokys and parts of southwest Virginia will be the main 
issue on Saturday. Rainfall amounts look light overall, with 
ensemble averages generally under a tenth of an inch. A return to 
near-normal temperatures is expected by midweek as the ridge 
influence weakens once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Dry through the period with VFR expected. Varying CIG height. Ridging
moving in aloft from the SW and a SE sfc high, will bring 
increased SWly flow to the terminals later this morning and into 
the early evening. Gusts between 20 and 25KT possible, with TYS 
favored for the highest gusts in SWly flow. Sustained and gusts 
subside some tonight, but will remain elevated overnight into 
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  60  84  41 /   0   0  30  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  62  79  37 /   0   0  70  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  60  79  36 /   0   0  70  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  59  74  33 /  10   0  80  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


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