782 
FXUS64 KMRX 261800
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns through Friday.

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph across the higher terrain of the Smoky 
Mountains and Southwest Virginia on Saturday. 

- Frost and freeze possible north northeast Tennessee and
  Southwest Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The forecast period begins with a transition from a dominant ridge 
over the Southeast to a more active, zonal flow pattern. Through 
Friday, high-amplitude ridging will maintain temperatures 3 to 8 
degrees above seasonal norms, with surface highs in the 70s and low 
80s. By Friday night, a northern stream shortwave will track across 
the Great Lakes, dragging a weakening surface cold front into the 
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This front will be moisture-starved due 
to the lack of significant Gulf return, though sounding data 
indicates enough boundary-layer instability for scattered light 
showers, primarily for areas north of I-40. Model ensembles indicate 
a high probability greater than 70 percent of QPF totals remaining 
below 0.20 inches for the majority of the region.  In the wake of 
the front, a tightening surface gradient will contribute to breezy 
conditions. 

Post-frontal northwest flow will usher in a surge of cooler Canadian 
air for the weekend, restoring seasonal temperatures by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions with hazy skies today along with gusty winds. 
Winds will remain elevated overnight and into tomorrow. 
Precipitation expected to move in just beyond the end of this 24 
hour TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  84  41  64 /   0  30  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  79  37  59 /   0  70  30   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  79  36  59 /   0  70  30   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  74  33  54 /   0  80  40   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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