592 
FXUS64 KMRX 271053
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
653 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph in the TN Valley today, and across the 
higher terrain of the Smoky Mountains and Southwest Virginia on 
Saturday. 

- Showers with a cold front move through this afternoon/evening, 
with only light rain amounts.

- Frost and freeze possible north northeast Tennessee and  Southwest 
Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cold front producing strong to severe storms between the Great 
Lakes and OH Valley this evening will push southward today. 
Convection and forcing with the front will be weakening as it moves 
south, as the upper level support stays well to our north. We will 
just have a period of showers in the late afternoon or evening 
hours, with little to no thunderstorms and QPF amounts of a tenth to 
a quarter inch in northern portions of the area; southern sections 
will see less or no rain. This precip will not do much alleviate the 
recent fire weather concerns. We will also have gusty winds this 
afternoon ahead of the front, from the SW with gusts in the 20-30 
mph range. 

Behind the front on Saturday, winds will be gusty again but from the 
north, with 20-30 mph gusts in the mountains. RH values on Saturday 
will be lower as well as a dry air mass moves in, dropping into the 
20-30% range. Sunday may have even lower RH as temperatures warm 
back into the mid/upper 60s - RH values may be in the 15-25% range. 
Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday mornings will drop to around 
freezing in northern sections as high pressure settles over the OH 
Valley and central Appalachians. 

Next week will feature mainly dry weather and warming temperatures, 
with highs in the 80s returning on Tuesday. A cold front may bring a 
chance of rain in the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Westerly winds are expected through the morning and early
afternoon with increasing cloud cover. By late afternoon into
early evening, a front will move into the area, bringing chances
for rain and MVFR conditions to all sites. For the evening and
overnight hours, rain will diminish across the region with winds
shifting to be from a more northerly direction. Gusts in excess of
20 kts are expected. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  39  62  40 /  50  30   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  36  59  35 /  80  40   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       76  35  59  35 /  80  40   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  32  54  32 /  90  40   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


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