MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 262026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262025 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Areas affected...much of Ohio into western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 262025Z - 262200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual convective development should support an
increasing risk for supercells late this afternoon into this
evening. Hail, damaging gusts are likely, with a couple of tornadoes
possible.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible and radar imagery showed an area of
showers and weak convection gradually intensifying across southern
Lower MI into northwestern OH. Located along and south of a
front/lake breeze intersection, warming and moistening of the air
mass across much of OH and PA this afternoon has resulted in weak to
moderate buoyancy. Area VADs show very strong mid-level flow with
elongated and veering hodographs. This will favor a mix of
supercells and linear segments as the primary storm mode. Given the
sufficient buoyancy and strong low/deep-layer shear, hail and severe
gusts are likely. Tornadoes are also possible given ESRH of 300-400
m2/s2. Additional vertical vorticity near the lake breeze boundary
could also support a locally greater tornado risk given favorable
storm motions parallel to the lake shore.

Recent CAM guidance and satellite trends regarding the ongoing
shallow convection/showers over northwest OH and Lower MI show them 
gradually deepening as continued heating and mid-level ascent erode
inhibition. This should support an increase in the severe risk late
this afternoon into the evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed.

..Lyons/Smith.. 03/26/2026


ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON   41748249 42038144 42058046 41617949 41077934 40447956
            39768013 39258145 39148316 39458405 39838433 40468450
            41188445 41648424 41758388 41768347 41748249 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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