ACUS01 KWNS 271241
SWODY1
SPC AC 271239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from North Carolina and
Virginia into the Ozark Plateau, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface analysis places an extensive cold front from just off
the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the TN Valley and
into west TX. This front is expected to continue surging
southward/southeastward today as a large area of high pressure
builds into the Plains. This progression will take the front off
both the Carolina/Southeast Coast and the TX/Central Gulf Coast by
early tomorrow morning, leaving only the FL Peninsula within the
pre-frontal warm sector.

The airmass preceding the front will be modestly moist, with
dewpoints largely in the upper 50s/low 60s. When combined with
modest daytime heating, this should be enough low/mid-level moisture
to foster limited buoyancy across VA and the Carolinas, supporting
the potential for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Some
isolated surface-based development is possible along the front, but
the progressive nature of the front will lead to undercutting and
limited residence time in the warm sector. Mid-levels will not be
particularly cold but should still be sufficient for limited
elevated buoyancy behind the front. Consequently, additional
thunderstorms will remain possible behind the front as large-scale
ascent increases. NC will be on the southern edge of the stronger
flow aloft, and deep-layer vertical shear will be strong enough to
support rotating updrafts and a conditional severe risk. However,
given only modest buoyancy and relatively warm thermodynamic
profiles, most updrafts will likely be transient and shallow, not
acquiring the necessary depth and persistence to organize. Best
chance for a strong storm capable of damaging gusts is in the
vicinity of GSO and RDU in northwest NC, where slightly improved
thermodynamic are possible.

Farther southwest, some deeper convective is possible well behind
the front this afternoon as the subtle shortwave trough currently
moving into OK moves through the Ozark Plateau amid modest elevated
buoyancy. Resulting convection should be transient and shallow, but
could still augment the strong low-level flow to produce damaging
gusts. A few lightning flashes are possible with the deepest cores.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/27/2026

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