528 
FXUS64 KMRX 281055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 654 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger today with low RH and gusty winds.

- Below freezing temperatures expected across our northern areas 
tonight, and possibly a few northern areas Sunday night. 

- Potential for a rainy period in the latter half of next week,
  which may alleviate drought and wildfire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Showers associated with a cold front have exited our area, and a 
cooler and drier air mass will build into the area through today. 

The main concern today will be the elevated fire weather conditions. 
RH values today will be in lower 20s for most areas, with north 
winds gusting up to 25 mph in valley locations and to around 30 
mph across the highest elevations of the East TN mountains. An 
Enhanced Fire Danger Statement is in effect for today for areas 
south of I-40. An additional enhanced fire danger statement is 
likely for Sunday as well due to low RH values, although winds are
expected to be lower than today. 

Much colder temperatures are expected overnight with near freezing 
to below freezing temps across our northern areas (northern 
Cumberland Plateau, northeast TN, southwest VA,) as well as the 
higher elevations of the East TN mountains. With the breezy winds 
behind the front, wind chills will drop into the teens across 
northern areas, with single digit wind chills in the East TN 
mountains. Lows near freezing are expected again Sunday morning in 
the mountains and northern sections, but light winds will not result 
in significantly lower wind chill values.

The first half of next week will feature mainly dry weather and 
warming temperatures, with highs in the 80s returning on Tuesday. 
Rain chances will ramp up on Wednesday as a cold front moves south 
across the OH Valley and settles across WV/KY/TN Wednesday night as 
it becomes parallel to the midlevel flow. A series of upper 
disturbances in the SW flow, combined with the potential for a 
stationary front near the area, may result in a rainy period through 
the latter half of next week. This may be beneficial for the current 
drought conditions and fire concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Mostly clear sky conditions are expected with northerly to
northeasterly winds. Gusts in excess of 20 kts are expected
through the morning hours with a slight decrease in winds during
the afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable overnight
with no fog expected. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  41  70  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  35  70  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  36  69  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  32  67  44 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


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