457 
FXUS64 KMRX 122348
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of rain
  possible for some.

- Dry and warmer next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light winds out of the northwest and mostly clear skies continue 
today helping to keep temperatures cool behind the front. Today will 
likely have to coldest high temperatures of the week with a slight 
warming ahead of our next incoming system. That system will be a 
surface low moving through the southeastern United States and 
eventually off the east coast into the Atlantic. 

Confidence is increasing that we will see rain moving in sometime 
Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening, and continuing through 
Sunday. Temperatures will remain warm enough that we'll see all 
rainfall across the region, and cannot completely rule out a few 
rumbles of thunder across southeast Tennessee with the steeper lapse 
rates in the mid/upper levels. Unfortunately storm total QPF amounts 
are the least confident part of the forecast with the scattered 
nature of storms and some uncertainty on when precipitation will 
come to an end on Sunday. At this point fairly high confidence we'll 
see at least half an inch of rain, but probabilistic model data is 
much more up in the air on who might see over 1 inch of rainfall.

A large high pressure ridge will cross the Gulf and Southeast next 
week, providing dry and mild conditions through Thursday, with 
temperature remaining well above freezing and highs in the 60/70's 
for most Monday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Light winds and
mid to high level clouds expected to be the primary weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             35  60  35  63 /  10   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  30  55  31  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       31  55  32  59 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              24  50  27  57 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


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