601 
FXUS64 KMRX 281825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger again tomorrow, across all areas. 

- Near to just below freezing temperatures expected across portions 
of northeast TN and southwest VA for tonight.

- Potential for a rainy period in the latter half of next week and
  into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term drought and 
  wildfire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Winds become less breezy overnight but light winds should remain
across most areas. Most areas should be above freezing but near 
to just below freezing temperatures are expected across portions 
of northeast TN and southwest VA tonight. Wind Chills will dip 
into the teens/20s across the highest peaks of the East TN, 
southwest VA, and the southwest NC mountains.


Elevated Fire Weather concerns continue tomorrow across all areas. 
Min RH values will once again be in the teens to 20s for most areas. 
Winds will be less gusty compared to today but still somewhat breezy 
and out of the south. Most valley locations will see gusts to around 
15 mph but isolated spots could see 20 mph. The higher elevations of 
the East TN mountains will see gusts up to 25 mph. An Enhanced Fire 
Danger Statement will be issued for all areas once the current 
statement that is in effect for today expires later this evening.


The first half of next week will feature mainly dry weather and 
warming temperatures due to a strong ridge of high pressure that
will be in place to our east in the Atlantic. On Tuesday, high 
temps will be back in the 80s. Rain and thunderstorm chances in 
place Wednesday/Thursday as a cold front moves south across the OH
Valley and settles across WV/KY/TN Wednesday night. A series of 
upper disturbances in the SW flow, combined with the potential for
a stationary front near the area, may result in a rainy period 
through the latter half of next week. Additional rain and storm 
chances in place Friday and into the weekend as shortwave, and 
then another cold front, move across the region. This unsettled 
period will bring several chances for widespread, beneficial, 
rainfall across the area. Current QPF totals from Wednesday 
through next weekend range from 1 to 2 inches across the area. 
These amounts may help to alleviate near-term drought and wildfire
conditions. No significant signs of any severe weather seems 
present at the moment, but a low probability of hazardous weather
will be in place from midweek onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Gusty winds still remain at TYS and CHA through late afternoon
with gusts to around 25kts from out of the north northeast. Winds
become calmer overnight. However, winds become gusty again at CHA
late in the period and out of the south. VFR forecast for all 
sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             41  70  53  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  35  70  50  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       36  69  49  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  67  44  71 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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