037 
FXUS64 KMRX 290630
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger again today across the whole area. 

- Temperatures to warm through Tuesday, and remain elevated rest of 
the week.

- Potential for an extended rainy period in the latter half of
  this week and into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term
  drought and wildfire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Early this morning Camp Creek has gusted into the 40s, which is a 
bit surprising given both the cross mountain wind flow is generally 
sub 20 knots and the cross mountain temperature difference doesn't 
seem significant enough to generate winds, and yet. The HRRR seems 
to have a good handle on this though, and persists gusty winds in 
Greene County into the late morning, before subsiding as the 
afternoon takes hold.

Very dry air again today, with relative humidity minimum values in 
the late afternoon and early evening similar to Saturday's observed 
values in the low 20s and teens. Winds will be pivoting to a return 
flow southerly posture, but will be weaker than yesterday for the 
most part. Flow increases Monday, bringing better moisture back into 
the Tennessee Valley. Dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday, but 
temperatures will steadily warm thanks to strengthening SW flow. 

Rain chances to return by Wednesday, as guidance depicts a frontal 
boundary coming down from the north and stalling over the Mid-South. 
A few disturbances in the upper flow will also pivot through the 
Eastern US. The end result is an unsettled pattern with medium to 
high rain chances Wednesday and onwards to the next weekend, with 
potential for decent drought-alleviating rains. QPF has wavered a 
bit with some run-to-run consistency issues, likely dependent on 
overall forcing and exact latitudinal setup of the stationary front. 
We're on the farther end from the disturbances passing in the heart 
of the country, so naturally there's only a 30-50% chance of an inch 
or more Wednesday through Friday night. Higher probabilities exist 
towards the Mississippi River. By the end of the period there's a 
more significant upper trough crossing the Northern Plains, a cold 
front extending southwards at the surface may bring an end to the 
stationary dreary weather. However, at this time range, spread 
increases significantly though the ensemble mean of the LREF depicts 
it as does the Euro operational.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

LLWS has been included in CHA as winds a few thousand feet AGL
have been 35 to 40 kt. This is not indicated as much at TYS and 
TRI, so no LLWS was added in. During the day, southerly winds will
increase with limited cloud cover. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  54  76  58 /   0  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  50  74  58 /   0  10  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  50  74  57 /   0  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  45  71  52 /   0  10  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


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