502 
FXUS64 KMRX 291738
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
138 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger through this evening across the whole area. 

- Mostly dry and a warming trend through Tuesday, then remaining 
around 15 degrees above normal through Saturday.  

- Potential for an extended rainy period in the latter half of
  this week and into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term
  drought and wildfire conditions. No severe weather anticipated
  at this time.

- No risk of below freezing temperatures over the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Enhanced Fire Danger continues until this evening due to low RH and 
breezy south to southeast winds. Much warmer tonight due to the 
southerly flow that is in place. Temps will generally be in the low 
40s to low 50s. 

Tomorrow morning there is a slight chance of rain along the TN/KY 
state line and into northeast TN and southwest VA. Some weak 
vorticity moving through zonal flow and increasing moisture may be 
enough to produce some light rain. Low confidence in this
occurrence. Any rain that falls will be light, with amounts 
general around a few hundredths of an inch or less. Otherwise, 
southerly flow increases in the lower levels on Monday as high 
pressure shifts further to our east. This will allow temps to 
climb into the low to mid 70s for most areas. Winds will remain 
somewhat breezy and out of the south and southeast but RH should 
be quite a bit higher due to the southerly flow. Fire Weather will
be less of a concern tomorrow. Mostly dry conditions and warming 
trend continues through Tuesday.


No real changes from Wednesday and beyond. The severe threat remains 
low due to the upper jet remaining mostly to our north. LREF probs
for 1 inch or more of rain from Wednesday through Sunday still
sitting between 30 to 50%.

See previous discussion below...

Rain chances to return by Wednesday, as guidance depicts a frontal 
boundary coming down from the north and stalling over the Mid-South. 
A few disturbances in the upper flow will also pivot through the 
Eastern US. The end result is an unsettled pattern with medium to 
high rain chances Wednesday and onwards to the next weekend, with 
potential for decent drought-alleviating rains. QPF has wavered a 
bit with some run-to-run consistency issues, likely dependent on 
overall forcing and exact latitudinal setup of the stationary front. 
We're on the farther end from the disturbances passing in the heart 
of the country, so naturally there's only a 30-50% chance of an inch 
or more Wednesday through Friday night. Higher probabilities exist 
towards the Mississippi River. By the end of the period there's a 
more significant upper trough crossing the Northern Plains, a cold 
front extending southwards at the surface may bring an end to the 
stationary dreary weather. However, at this time range, spread 
increases significantly though the ensemble mean of the LREF depicts 
it as does the Euro operational.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Southerly winds will continue to gust to around 20kts at CHA until
this evening. Southerly winds remain in place through the night
but less than 10kts at all sites. Near MVFR ceilings are possible
at CHA this evening and overnight. There is a low probability that
MVFR conditions occur but not confident enough to include in 
forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period at
all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  76  58  83 /  10   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  51  74  58  81 /  10  10   0  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  74  57  81 /  10  10   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  71  52  79 /  10  10   0  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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