047 
FXUS64 KMRX 300705
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 304 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Warming trend through Tuesday, then remaining around 15 degrees 
above normal through Saturday.  

- Potential for several round of rain in the latter half of this
  week and into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term drought
  and wildfire conditions. No severe weather anticipated at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently still a fairly warm evening as our southerly winds in 
increasing clouds combine to keep temperatures much warmer than the 
previous few nights. With a weak round of enhanced vorticity 
traversing across we could see some isolated showers/sprinkles near 
the KY/TN/VA borders tomorrow. But if anyone gets rain the 
accumulations will be minor and no impacts are expected. Biggest 
weather of note for the first part of the week is the continuing 
warming temperatures, climbing into the 80's for pretty much all 
locations in the Valley by Tuesday/Wednesday. With the more 
southerly flow increasing the temperatures it will also increase the 
dew points and relative humidities which will help decrease the fire 
weather conditions.

Pattern becomes more unsettled for the second half of the week into 
the weekend with multiple systems expected to move through the 
region. First system is a slow moving front which may stall out over 
the Mississippi Valley as it acts as a focus for enhanced rainfall, 
and will eventually move into the eastern Tennessee Valley. The 
second half of the week is looking to bring multiple rounds of rain 
and hopefully over an inch of precipitation to all locations when 
everything is said and done. The systems during the work week do not 
look like they have very favorable dynamics to produce widespread 
severe weather, but thunderstorms are definitely a possibility.

Heading into the weekend there's a more pronounced system looking to 
move through with better synoptic dynamics. This could possibly 
bring some stronger thunderstorms to the region, but with it being 
5+ days out it's difficult to get into the specifics at this 
point... But the weekend is shaping up to bring more rain to the 
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

LLWS has been added in to CHA and TYS again as winds a few
thousand feet AGL remain 30 to 35 kts with limited winds at the
surface. This will continue into early morning with MVFR also
likely at CHA. Throughout the day, southerly to southwesterly winds
at the surface will increase with gusts to 20 kts possible. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  60  82  62 /  10  10  20  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  74  58  81  62 /  10  10  30  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  58  80  61 /  10   0  20  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  52  78  57 /  20   0  30  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


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