ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated
strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains with localized hail/wind.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor
imagery across the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, a diffuse lee
cyclone is noted in surface observations across the High Plains.
Over the next 24-48 hours, this cyclone will intensify as it
translates east across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region in
tandem with the upper wave. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest
ahead of this low and along a trailing cold front with increasingly
sparse convective coverage with southwestward extent into the
Plains. Elsewhere across the country, isolated thunderstorms are
expected across portions of Southeast states within a plume of
returning rich low-level moisture as well as across the Southwest
and northern Great Basin as ascent associated with a weak upper
disturbance overspreads the region.

...Great Lakes...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Tuesday morning within the warm frontal zone of the
approaching cyclone. Based on latest high-res guidance, this
activity should largely exit the upper Great Lakes region by early
afternoon and allow for some degree of air mass recovery ahead of
the approaching cold front. Westerly 40-50 knot shear vectors will
likely support initially semi-discrete storm modes across portions
of the upper MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity by early afternoon
with an attendant large hail risk.

With time, upscale growth along the front into one or more linear
segments is expected - especially in close proximity to the surface
low where forcing for ascent will be greatest. Latest HREF/REFS
ensemble guidance continues to depict the strongest convective
signal across lower MI and downstream into the Lake Erie region
where low-level moistening should support MLCAPE values upwards of
1500 J/kg ahead of the low. Additionally, low-level warm advection
preceding the surface low will support 0-1 km SRH values on the
order of 250 m2/s2 across the lower Great Lakes region. While it
remains unclear whether or not discrete storms can develop within
the diffuse warm frontal zone ahead of any convective
lines/clusters, a tornado threat may materialize as convection moves
into the favorably sheared environment during the evening hours.

...Southern Plains...
Modest deepening of a lee trough/low across the southern High Plains
will support some tightening of a dryline across western OK into
adjacent portions of northwest TX as a cold front stalls across
northwest OK. Ample heating/mixing and weak low-level convergence
may sufficiently erode inhibition and provide adequate ascent along
the dryline and/or cold front to support at least a few isolated
thunderstorms. A combination of marginal deep-layer wind shear
(25-30 knots of effective bulk shear) and dry low-level conditions
may support an isolated hail and severe wind risk with the more
robust convection.

..Moore.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)