FOUS30 KWBC 300852
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 30 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 31 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

While the better setup for localized flash flooding occurs after
12Z, there will be the presence of an increasing surge of moisture
and instability leading to the potential for localized heavy rainfall.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 31 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

The latest guidance has continued to see an uptick in forecast
amounts across the lower Great lakes and New England regions for
this period. Impressive moisture advection characterized by IVT
values exceeding 750 kg/ms in spots will move northeast along a
slow-moving front across the Great Lakes. This will allow near
record amounts of atmospheric moisture for this time of year, with
PWATs exceeding 1.25 inches at times to move into the Marginal Risk
area. Instability will increase towards the south and west, but
drier antecedent soil conditions and weaker forcing should cancel
out those supporting meteorological factors along the Mississippi
River and the Ozarks. During this period a stationary front draped
across New York remain in place, providing focus for rounds of scattered
convection to fire up. By Tuesday evening rainfall coverage should
increase as an area of low pressure tracks along the frontal
boundary. Guidance continues to favor areal averages of 1-2 inches
for the region, however with training possible, localized higher
amounts of 2-4 inches may materialize over the northeast Ohio, far
northwest PA and into southwest NY...near the stationary front and
within a corridor where instability has a better chance of persisting.

Campbell/Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST/UPPER MIDWEST...

The central portion of the country is shaping up for heavy rainfall
as a frontal system extending from the Northeast to the Mid-South
taps into Gulf moisture advecting northward. Multiple rounds of convection
are expected to fire up across central and eastern CONUS given the
upper level support for sustained rainfall potential. Local
flooding may arise over portions of the Southern Plains, Lower and
Mid-Mississippi Valley. The general footprint of the rainfall
shield has trended a bit west from the previous cycle thus
requiring a western adjustment of the Marginal Risk area.
Consensus continues to favor the highest QPF to focus over eastern
Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and into central Missouri.

The timing of the incoming shortwave/lifting warm front has
remained a trickier part of the forecast, and convection south
along the cold front may also limit instability further
north/become the higher threat. At this time a Slight Risk was not
raised but may be needed with future updates.

Campbell/Tate
$$
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