ACUS01 KWNS 301614
SWODY1
SPC AC 301613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and evening.

...IA to Lower MI...

Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today,
with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region.  A combination of
daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing
low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in
scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA.  These storms will form
in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear.  MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote
strong updrafts with a few supercells possible.  Large hail appears
to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward
into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.

Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of
lower MI.  Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain
vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds overnight.

...TX Panhandle...

Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately
unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this
evening.  Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development
in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period.  Forecast soundings
suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of
updrafts that can survive.  However, any storm that can persist will
pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/30/2026

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 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)