ACUS02 KWNS 310603
SWODY2
SPC AC 310601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be
draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley
and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will
traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the
southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper
wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western
KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints
(already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX
coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification
of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary
as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late
evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK
into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the
dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins
to eject during the early evening hours.

...Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas...

Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC
period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of
diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode
inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete
supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though
uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening).
Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening
hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will
occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an
increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and
maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours.

...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri...

Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development
of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across
eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours -
likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm
advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds
within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on
the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1
km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very
large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the
weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering
and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could
limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in
guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants
an expansion of probabilities.

...Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled
boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection
by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest
compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation
should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of
posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may
promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for
damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

$$
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