MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 311246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311246 
ILZ000-IAZ000-311415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...north-central Illinois and far eastern Iowa.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 311246Z - 311415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail/damaging wind threat this morning.

DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed within the last hour
across southeast Iowa and far western Illinois ahead of a weak
mid-level trough where some low-level jet enhancement is also
present. These cells are quite small, but are rotating and seem to
be relatively efficient hail producers (already 1 report of 1 inch
hail in eastern Iowa). The primary hail threat will likely be early
in the storm cycles before they congeal and some damaging wind
threat may develop. However, relatively weak instability this
morning should mitigate the overall threat. Therefore, no watch is
anticipated.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/31/2026

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41119189 41339126 41718989 41728852 41368783 41098790
            40838872 40718963 40699061 40749119 40849169 41119189 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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