531 
FXUS64 KMRX 131108
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday with 40 to 
  50% chance for an inch or more of rainfall.

- Dry and warmer next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Not too many changes this morning with the weather forecast. Mild 
weather through this weekend becoming warmer next week as our well 
earned thaw continues. A weak upper low will undercut Tennessee over 
the weekend, with rain likely to hold off on Saturday until light 
rain chances begin sneaking in Saturday night thanks to the leading 
isentropic lift ahead of the low. Dry low level air should hold rain 
at bay, but anything that falls Saturday evening would be light. The 
vast bulk of the rain will fall on Sunday, with a 50% chance for 
over an inch of rain. Looking through the various deterministic 
guidance has different swaths of an inch of rain, north vs south vs 
western portions of the area. This is the best shot of rain through 
the next 7 days, and with severe drought, it is very much needed. 
Not seeing any significant mountain wind flow, though there may be 
some breezy winds on the Plateau Saturday night into Sunday morning, 
in spite of poor mixing.

Once the low moves out very early on Monday, a dry pattern sets up 
with a warming airmass thanks to higher upper heights setting up 
over the broader Mid South region. A couple of weak systems traverse 
the Eastern US over the course of next week, but only a weak cyclone 
late week next week carries low rain chances for us. Otherwise the 
warming trend will bring widespread 60s and 70s Tuesday and after. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light northeasterly winds and limited cloud cover at or above
10,000 feet are expected through most of the period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  35  62  48 /   0   0   0  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  31  60  45 /   0   0   0  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  32  59  45 /   0   0   0  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              50  28  57  41 /   0   0   0  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


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