293 
FXUS64 KMRX 311839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Very warm through Saturday. Cold front late weekend will bring 
cooler temperatures early next week. 

- Chances for showers and storms will increase Wednesday through 
Saturday, mainly in the afternoon with greater coverage across the 
higher elevations. More widespread showers expected late Saturday 
night and Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures with frost possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The upper level pattern for much of the week will be characterized 
by upper ridging across the southeast United States with a series of 
short-waves exiting into the Plains states into the Great Lakes. 
Surface ridging into the Carolinas and far southeast United States 
will keep deep moisture from moving north into the east Tennessee 
valley and southern Appalachains with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 
60s. 

However, HREF and deterministic models do show enough instability 
increase to produce mainly diurnal convection especially across the 
higher elevations for Wednesday through Saturday. Isolated strong 
storm is possible but shear and instability not strong enough for 
organized thunderstorm development.

Upper ridging will produce unseasonably warm conditions over the 
region with highs 15 to almost 20 degrees above normal. At this 
time, record temperatures are not anticipated.

For late Saturday into Sunday morning, a deeper short-wave will move 
across the Great Lakes/Ohio valley. Upper level jet will extend far 
enough south to put the area under the favored right entrance region 
of the jet. Broad divergence is noted which will enhance the frontal-
genetic forcing along an incoming front. A line of convection is 
expected late Saturday night/Sunday morning.

LREF and deterministic models show very limited instability and 
mainly elevated. Embedded thunderstorms are possible but limited 
instability and effective shear will keep potential of severe storms 
low.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, dry northwest flow and surface 
ridging will produce dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures. 
Some frost development is possible Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Main forecast concern is the chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm Wednesday. Greatest coverage will likely be during
the afternoon hours.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with southerly winds of 7
to 15 knots with gusts in excess of 20 knots

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  83  61  84 /  10  30  20  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  82  61  84 /  10  40  20  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  82  59  84 /  10  40  10  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  80  56  82 /  10  40  20  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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