120 
FXUS64 KMRX 010639
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Very warm through Saturday. 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Chances for PM showers and storms will increase through Friday, 
with greater coverage across the higher elevations. More widespread 
showers expected late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

- Cold front late weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
  next week. Frost possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

In comparison to yesterday, today will be a couple of degrees warmer 
with higher humidity and an increase in shower and storm potential. 
The greatest coverage will be over the higher terrain of the 
Southern Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau. Not a whole lot of 
shear to work with, so organized convection will be hard to come by. 
CAPE will run close to 1,000 J/kg. A few hundredths to a couple 
tenths of an inch of precipitation is possible through late this 
evening. Activity dies after sunset. Although southwesterly flow 
will continue, gusts may not be as strong as yesterday afternoon.

The summer-like pattern continues through the end of the work-week, 
with scattered PM showers and storms across our area. And not to 
mention, temperatures will be well above normal with low and 
possibly mid 80s for the valley each day through Saturday. 
Temperatures will be running 15 to 20 degrees above average. Tying 
and breaking of records at the climate sites, is possible. Tri-
Cities did tie the high temperature record for yesterday afternoon.

A pattern change arrives this weekend when a deeper trough is 
forecast to take a Northern Plains to Western Great Lakes track. A 
deepening low pressure center near the central US will also track 
towards the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will reach the 
forecast area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday. The 
potentially strong frontal system will hopefully bring much needed 
precipitation area-wide. Still too early to know if strong to severe 
storms will accompany this system. So far, only WPC highlights a 
MRGL risk for flash flooding for the Day 5 period.

Following the front, cooler more seasonable temperatures beginning 
Easter Sunday to kick start the first full week of April. A dry few 
days may set in with low afternoon RHs, so a possible return of 
enhanced fire danger. Frost development may even be possible some 
mornings early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Fairly light winds and a few mid level clouds are expected for the
rest of the night into the morning hours. During the day,
southerly to southwesterly winds will increase with gusts nearing
20 kts at TYS and potentially CHA. Afternoon showers and storms
are possible with limited coverage expected around CHA. TYS and
TRI, however, have better chances of seeing something at the
terminal. Chances do look highest at TRI, but both were kept as
PROB30s for now. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  62  85  63 /  40  20  20  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  62  85  62 /  50  20  40  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  61  84  62 /  50  20  30  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  57  82  57 /  70  20  40  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


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