043 
FXUS64 KMRX 271909
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 303 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

1. Low potential for rain and thunder early tomorrow morning, mainly north of 
Interstate 40.
Then, isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, with 
most likely time for a severe storm with damaging winds between 2 
pm and 6 pm EDT in northeastern TN and southwestern VA. 

2. Hot and humid tomorrow with heat indices reaching into the low 100sF, 
as high as 105F in the lower elevations of the southern Valley.

3. Cold front yields a drier air mass Wednesday through Friday, with regular 
summer temperatures and humidity. Rain chances return this 
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Humid but otherwise pleasant weather this afternoon. Humidity will increase 
slightly tomorrow,
while we wait for an incoming cold front to provide some marginal
relief and knock us back down to regular summer conditions. Heat 
indices in the southern valley tomorrow afternoon should once 
again climb into the low 100sF. We will likely be near heat 
advisory criteria for portions of the valley south of Interstate 
40, at or around 105F feels like. 

Not feeling very confident about the degree to which we see 
severe thunderstorms tomorrow. Certainly from a parameter space, 
the overall numbers are favorable between supportive overall 
shear, a couple thousand MLCAPE, and enough time between morning 
cloud cover and destabilization in the afternoon hours. On the 
other hand, overall upper dynamics arenΓÇÖt too favorable for severe
weather, the morning remnants of the storms upstream of us may 
induce a backside sinking motion in the atmosphere, which could 
then inhibit updraft strength later in the day. The HREF only has 
very low probabilities for strong updraft speeds and experimental 
AI guidance along with traditional CAMs are also struggling to 
depict widespread convective coverage. ThereΓÇÖs a few model s that 
are active, namely the Euro, RRFS, MPAS. The main threat with this
will be damaging wind gusts with discrete thunderstorms. I think 
a tornado threat is very low, between probably too high LCLs and 
trending weaker low level helicity, thatΓÇÖs not as b ig on my radar
as yesterday. More objective HREF and experimental guidance also 
keep probabilities really low but the ML nadocast is still 
carrying a 2% tornado risk, so again wouldnΓÇÖt rule it out 
outright. Otherwise, if storms are able to fire and reach their 
full potential, the environment is prone for damaging winds 60 to 
70 mph, fueled by midlevel dry air and plenty of CAPE to power 
strong downdrafts. Small to maybe 1ΓÇ¥ hail as well, though the high
freezing heights of July will be melting any hail falling. 

ThereΓÇÖs potential for morning showers and maybe a thunderstorm early 
tomorrow morning, but guidance has been consistent in weakening 
these storms or outright dissipation. Then thereΓÇÖs a nonzero risk 
we see scattered convection in a northwest to southeast direction 
through the day over southwest Virginia, but again, low 
confidence. The upper jet looking its best at 06z in the morning 
is not the greatest sign for significant severe. Overall the risk 
for severe weather is low, and in the narrow timeframe of say 2 pm
to 6 pm EDT, mainly focused in northeastern Tennessee and 
southwestern Virginia. 

Beyond Tuesday weΓÇÖll have rain chances diminishing in the mountains 
overnight with the passage of the cold front, and then a drier 
air mass leads to regular summer vibes through the back half of 
the week with likely dry weather. A new upper trough arrives in 
the Eastern US by this Saturday, and itΓÇÖs this trough that will 
also bring about the next bout of rain chances in time for the 
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions across the area despite SCT-BKN cu field that has 
developed within northerly low-level flow. Should remain fairly 
quiet until after midnight where models hinting at another potential 
MCS. Given the upper level flow, and upstream energy around the 
Great Lakes (currently), have introduced a mention of convection for 
KTRI and KTYS sometime late tonight into the mid morning hours. 
Outside of that, typical low clouds/fog possible around KTRI after 
05-07z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN            MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Oak Ridge, TN                      MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 
Tri Cities Airport, TN             MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


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