622 
FXUS64 KMRX 291059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity today through 
the beginning of the weekend. 

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Storms are well south of the area as they continue their push into 
central GA. As of the 03z SFC analysis, the cold front drapes across 
the southern portion of the forecast area through southwest NC, 
north of Chattanooga, and NW into Middle TN south Nashville.

Dew points will be considerably less, with lower 70s still possibly 
hanging on today from about I-40 and south. Much lower and more 
comfortable readings filter in later tonight and into tomorrow. 
Everywhere, with the exception of maybe a few isolated spots, will 
be below 90 for highs tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures for the most 
part will remain steady through the forecast period, with bumps up 
or down a few degrees between the 80 and 90 degree mark (the 
valley). What cannot be forgotten to mention is that we'll be dry 
under high pressure sinking SSE-SE through the remainder of the work-
week. Unfortunately the much welcomed drier air will be replaced 
with moist air again, when dew points are forecast to shoot up into 
early Saturday. The low to mid 70s dews, especially across the 
valley, will persist into early next week.

A pattern change comes this weekend as we move into August, and 
appears will be a wet one. Persistent troughing over the NE will 
slowly rotate out just as a new shortwave begins to form over top 
the SW US ridge. It'll cross into the Dakota's Thursday and then 
make its dive SE through IA, IL, MO, and so on Friday. Around early 
or mid Saturday, it'll be knocking on our doorstep near western KY 
and TN. There are differences heading into the weekend if it will 
become a cut-off low, which could mean a near stationary system.
Nevertheless, there could be days with periods of rain Saturday into 
early next week. The Day 5 ERO created by WPC yesterday afternoon, 
brings a part of the slight risk for flash flooding into southern 
parts of the area Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Dense fog expected to remain for a few hours this morning at KTRI.
Fog and low ceilings should burn off within a few hours. VFR
conditions expected to prevail for the remainder of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  68  88  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  65  84  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  60  80  58 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


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