819 
FXUS64 KMRX 020633
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Very warm through Saturday. 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Chances for PM showers and storms through the end of the week, 
with greater coverage across the higher elevations. Better chances 
for more widespread showers and possible storms expected late 
Saturday night and Sunday morning.

- Cold front late weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
  next week. Frost possible Monday through Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Today will be much like yesterday, except maybe lesser coverage in 
higher terrain storms. According to the 00z HRRR, instability will 
be weaker. Any storm that does form though does have the chance of 
becoming strong with primary hazards being gusty winds, small hail, 
downpours, and lightning. Basically the same can be said for Friday 
with a diurnal increase in isolated to scattered showers and storms. 
Southerly to southwesterly winds and gusts could be higher today due 
to a low pressure center moving towards Lake Michigan and the 
surface high remaining anchored over the western Atlantic. 

Even with a shortwave trough moving towards the western Great Lakes 
later today, we will remain mostly under the influence of the upper 
ridge with very warm temperatures continuing. Low to mid 80s for 
most, expected each day through Saturday. These values run 15 to 20 
degrees above normal for early April. 

A pattern change arrives this weekend when a deeper trough is 
forecast to take a Northern Plains to Western Great Lakes track. A 
deepening low pressure center near the central US will also track 
towards the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will reach the 
forecast area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday. The 
potentially strong frontal system will hopefully bring much needed 
precipitation area-wide. Some locations could see up to or just over 
one inch of rainfall. Although it is still too early to know if 
strong to severe storms will accompany this system, WPC highlights a 
MRGL risk for flash flooding for the Day 4 period.

Following the front, cooler more seasonable temperatures beginning 
Easter Sunday to kick start the first full week of April. A dry few 
days may set in with low afternoon RHs, so a possible return of 
enhanced fire danger. Frost development may even be possible some 
mornings early next week. A secondary cold front around Tues/Wed may 
bring even colder temperatures to the area Wednesday morning. For 
example, Tri-Cities averages a low of 41 degrees April 8th, but the 
current forecast is calling for low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Light and variable winds are expected overnight into the morning
hours with limited cloud cover generally between 5,000 and 10,000
feet. Throughout the day, increasing southerly to southwesterly
winds are expected with gusts of 20 kts or greater likely at CHA
and TYS. There are some chances for showers or isolated storms in
the afternoon, but confidence remains low enough for it to be left
out of the TAFs. If anything did hit one of the terminals, TRI has
the highest chance for impact. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  63  84  63 /  20  10  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  63  82  61 /  20   0  20  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  63  82  61 /  20  20  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  58  80  57 /  20   0  20   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


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