175 
FXUS64 KMRX 291841
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity through Friday. 

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.

- Low-end chance for a few strong storms on Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Discussion:

Dry weather, along with more comfortable temps and dewpoints are 
expected through Friday. This is due to our post-frontal airmass
and the remaining deep trough in place across the eastern U.S.
which continues to provide northerly flow across our region. 

Friday into Saturday, southerly flow returns as the East Coast 
trough pushes further east and a new shortwave and trough emerge 
from out of the northern/central Great Plains. This southerly flow 
will bring moisture back into the area. Increasing moisture combined 
with incoming trough/low pressure and cold front will lead to 
chances for showers and storms returning to the area this weekend.
Something to keep an eye on will be the positioning and timing of
the low and cold front arrival. With it's approach, we do see an 
uptick in 850mb winds and a little bit of upper jet support. If 
the front were to come through during peak heating, we certainly 
could see a few strong storms as there will be at least some shear
present. Confidence is very low though as many things have to 
come together for this to occur. Again, it's worth keeping an eye 
on.

Thereafter, there are still model differences on whether or not this 
low pressure system then becomes cut-off. If it does, then chances 
for showers and storms will remain elevated into next week as this 
low continues to slowly spins across the region with no where to 
go. The previous Day 5, now day 4, ERO still mountains a 
slight/marginal risk for excessive rainfall across our area. 

Bottom line, nice through Friday. Unsettled weather this weekend, 
potentially lasting into next week. Just beyond the end of this 
forecast period, it looks like the cut-off low loses it's circulation
and becomes no more with high pressure then building back into 
the region.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions with light northerly winds expected at CHA and TYS
through the period. Mostly VFR at TRI but TEMPO for MVFR fog and 
ceilings in overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  88  66  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  84  62  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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