675 
FXUS64 KMRX 300522
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
122 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps and humidity through Friday. 

- Showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend into next week.

- A low chance for a few strong to severe storms this weekend, but
  details still uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Surface high pressure to our north and northwest will continue to 
extend into our area through Friday as it slides slowly east. The 
post frontal airmass over our area will provide a mild and sunny day 
Thursday, with temperatures generally a bit below normal and a 
noticeable absence of the humid stickiness that was around earlier 
in the week. Friday will be mostly sunny and dry as well, with high 
temperatures closer to seasonal normals.  

For the weekend, southerly flow brings an increase in moisture as an 
upper level shortwave energy and trough drop from out of the 
northern/central Great Plains into our area. The increase in 
moisture combined with the incoming trough/low pressure and a 
frontal boundary will lead to chances for showers and storms 
returning to the area Saturday into Sunday. The details are still 
not clear, but while the LREF ensemble data currently suggests the 
joint probability of at least 500 J/kg of CAPE and 25 kts of bulk 
shear are very low (around 10%), there is certainly potential in 
this pattern for a period favorable for some strong to severe storms 
since at least marginal shear will likely be present, with the most 
likely time frame for any severe threat being Saturday into Saturday 
night. However, whether or not this threat materializes will depend 
on details, including the timing of best forcing and available CAPE, 
that are still unknown. Localized flooding will also be possible in 
any locations that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain 
during the weekend. This will bear close watching as we get closer. 

There are model differences for the early part of next week with 
some models showing the upper trough cutting off somewhere over our 
region and gradually weakening.  If it does, then chances for 
showers and storms will remain elevated into next week as this upper 
low continues to slowly spins across the region with no where to go 
before it eventually dissipates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Low confidence in fog forming at KTRI for a few hours before
sunrise with the lower dew points. Outside of brief fog at KTRI
expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  66  91  70 /   0   0   0  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  63  88  68 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  57  83  64 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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