ACUS02 KWNS 130559
SWODY2
SPC AC 130557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Great Plains
into lower Mississippi Valley, mainly late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the central
into eastern mid-latitude Pacific.  Downstream of a prominent
building mid-level ridge, it appears that a significant mid-level
trough will dig offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday through
Saturday night, accompanied by at least modest surface cyclogenesis.

Further downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to continue
building inland across the southern Great Basin and southern
California through much of the Four Corners states.  Guidance
indicates that a preceding short wave trough will remain progressive
across and east of the southern Great Plains, in the wake of
larger-scale troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard.
However, there remains notable spread among the various model output
concerning the movement of this perturbation across Texas toward the
lower Mississippi Valley through this period.

Forcing for ascent accompanying this short wave is forecast to
support surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, but
this may remain modest to weak, particularly across the southern
Great Plains, with the most notable deepening generally not forecast
to occur until Saturday night across southeast Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...

It appears that widespread, layered cloud cover and precipitation
will precede the short wave trough through much of the south central
U.S. by 12Z Saturday, and this may tend to inhibit potential for
appreciable destabilization, despite an influx of Gulf
boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 50s to mid 60s F
surface dew points across much of Texas and Oklahoma.  At least
somewhat drier air advecting in mid-levels to the south of the Red
River might allow for daytime warming and breaks in the low-level
overcast.  However, stronger mid-level cooling, to the north of a
70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak propagating south of the Texas Big Bend
toward northwest Gulf coastal areas, might be the primary
contributor to destabilization.  Based on forecast soundings, most
unstable parcels might remain mostly rooted above a saturated
near-surface layer with generally moist adiabatic lapse rates,
particularly across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Even so, the destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 500+
J/kg), in the presence of strong deeper-layer shear, may become
supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe hail, at least initially.  Aided by favorable large-scale
forcing for ascent, there does appear potential for stronger
convection to consolidate and organize across central toward
southeastern Texas late Saturday afternoon into evening.  As this
occurs, the development of strong surface gusts might not be out of
the question.  Tornadic potential may be limited due to weak near
surface lapse rates/instability, but low-level hodographs could
become more conducive across southeastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Saturday night, as the surface cyclone deepens.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2026

$$
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