189 
FXUS64 KMRX 021752
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
152 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Warm through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Increasing chances for more widespread showers and storms expected 
late Saturday night and Sunday morning along a cold front.

- Cold front this weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
  next week. Frost possible Monday through Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Currently another very warm April day, likely to be the warmest day 
of this 7-day forecast as temperatures are in the 80's early this 
afternoon across much of the eastern Tennessee Valley. Satellite 
imagery shows some cumulus forming along the higher terrain and some 
of this could bubble up enough to cause brief, very isolated, 
showers or thunderstorms mainly across the higher elevation. Can't 
rule out a rogue shower dropping down into the valley, but for the 
vast majority of the population, today will be another sunny and 
warm day.

Warm temperatures continue tomorrow, but should be a few degrees 
lower as there's a bit more cloud coverage with a shortwave moving 
through the northern US. 

We'll get a cool down this weekend when a trough moves through the 
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. At the same time a low 
pressure center near the central US will also track towards the 
Great Lakes. This will drag along with it a cold front that should 
sweep through the eastern Tennessee Valley Saturday night into early 
Sunday. This will be our best chance for widespread precipitation 
over the next 7-days which is definitely needed with the ongoing 
drought conditions across the southeastern United States. Some 
locations could see up to or just over one inch of rainfall. There 
look to be some decent dynamics in this system, and we can't rule 
out seeing strong to severe thunderstorms. If we end up getting the 
1+ inches of rain this could lead to brief isolated flooding of low 
lying and urban areas during the time of heaviest rainfall. But with 
the river and lake levels lower than normal... River flooding is not 
anticipated at this time.

Following the front, cooler more seasonable temperatures are 
expected Sunday into next week. A dry few days may set in with low 
afternoon RHs, which could bring back fire weather conditions. Frost 
development may even be possible some mornings early next week 
behind the front as a second cold front Tuesday/Wednesday may bring 
even colder temperatures to the area Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds 
will continue to be gusty for the first part of this TAF cycle, but 
will slack off with the setting sun. Expect winds to pick back up 
tomorrow, but with increased clouds, the gusts should remain
lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  84  63  84 /  10  10  10  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  82  61  83 /   0  20  10  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  82  61  82 /  20  20   0  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  80  57  82 /   0  20   0  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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