385 
FXUS64 KMRX 030619
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
219 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday.

- Afternoon showers and storms will be isolated today and confined 
  mainly to Northeast Tennessee.

- Scattered showers and storms expected Saturday afternoon
  becoming more widespread Saturday night into Sunday morning 
  along a cold front.

- Cold front this weekend will bring cooler temperatures early next 
  week. Frost possible each morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. 
A shortwave is moving through the Midwest into the Great Lakes 
currently. At the surface, a low is moving into the Great Lakes 
tonight but that cold front will stay well to our north with ridging 
and high pressure over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Radar will 
remain quiet tonight although a spotty shower in the Cumberland 
Plateau cannot be ruled out. This afternoon shower and storm 
activity will be isolated and confined mainly to Northeast 
Tennessee. Temps will still be warm today with highs in the lower 
80s in the TN Valley. A smidge more cloud cover is likely today.

Tomorrow afternoon, showers and storms will be more scattered as the 
ridge starts to break down. Saturday night into Sunday morning, 
widespread showers and storms are expected as a cold front moves 
through. This system will have good upper level support with a 
trough making it into the Southeast. At the surface, the parent low 
will move through the Great Lakes bringing a cold front through the 
region by Sunday morning. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out but 
instability looks very low with storm timing late in the evening or 
overnight. Dew points will only get into the lower 60s in the 
Tennessee Valley. Much of the region will get a much needed rain 
with forecast rain totals around one inch. 

Rain will start to taper off Sunday morning as a much cooler air 
mass moves into the region. Highs from Sunday through midweek will 
be closer to seasonal normals in the 60s. Much cooler than recent 
weather. Frost will be a concern Monday through Wednesday mornings 
especially for the northern half of the region and the mountains. 
Dry weather will continue through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR through the period. A low chance for a few showers near KTRI
in the afternoon and evening. No thunder expected. Winds should
lessen the remainder of the night, then return during the day,
with gusts to near 20 knots at KTYS. Wind to follow typical 
diurnal pattern in intensity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  63  83  56 /  10  10  50  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  61  82  55 /  20  10  60  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  62  82  54 /  20   0  50 100 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  57  81  56 /  20   0  60  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


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