329 
FXUS64 KMRX 031848
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected Saturday 
  afternoon becoming more widespread Saturday night into Sunday 
  morning along a cold front.

- Cold front this weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

In the upper levels the southern Appalachians remain under influence 
of a ridge while troughing swings through the Mountain West into the 
Northern Plains. Isolated showers are possible in the mountains and 
foothills this afternoon, but most will remain dry with well above 
normal temperatures being the focus for the remainder of the day. 
Afternoon high temperatures look as though they will fall a few 
degrees shy of breaking any daily records. Quiet weather with mild 
temperatures overnight. 

Cyclogenesis is expected beneath strong upper divergence as a sfc 
low progresses through the Ozarks and into the Great Lakes Region 
Saturday into Saturday night. Weak isentropic ascent and a vort lobe 
may promote some isolated to weakly scattered showers and storms 
tomorrow afternoon, with activity becoming increasingly widespread 
Saturday evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front.

The upr troughing will expand southward through the Ohio Valley and 
into the Tennessee Valley, giving way to moderate upper level 
support Saturday night. This will translate to the lower levels as a 
40-45 kt swly LLJ develops atop the forecast area, and promotes 
gusty winds across the East Tennessee mountains. No wind advisory is 
expected at this time as the LLJ is more marginal, and the pressure 
gradient is weak with the sfc low so far to our north. However, I 
wouldn't be surprised to see those highest peaks, such as Cove 
Mountain, gusting to 40-45mph.

Regarding convective strength, latest hi-resolution guidance depicts 
the diurnal sfc inversion developing ahead of the front, suggesting 
this activity will struggle to remain surface based during an 
overnight passage. Some elevated instability will promote moderate 
to heavy downpours as the main axis of forcing swings through the 
region. The strongest storms could bring gusty winds upwards of 
40mph, but severe chances look rather low due to the overnight 
timing. 

Rain will gradually clear out Sunday morning, leading to a mostly 
dry and cooler Sunday afternoon. We settle into a drier period from 
here on out. A few instances of morning frost may be possible for 
northern and high elevation locations Mon-Wed, with Wed morning 
looking the most probable at this time. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Southwest winds
around 10kts, gusting to near 20kts at TYS, will gradually wane
this evening. Winds will follow a similar diurnal pattern and
intensity tomorrow afternoon. Brief period of low VFR/MVFR clouds
possible near CHA tomorrow morning. Confidence not high enough to
include predominant MVFR conditions at this time, but it may need
to be considered with future issuances. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  83  54  69 /  10  40 100  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  82  54  67 /  10  40 100  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  81  53  67 /   0  30 100  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  80  54  65 /  10  50  90  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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