644 
FXUS64 KMRX 040601
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon
  becoming more widespread tonight into Sunday morning as a cold 
  front approaches.

- Cold front Sunday morning will bring cooler temperatures early 
  next week.

- Dry weather Sunday afternoon through the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Currently, ridging and high pressure are still over the region. A 
few showers or storms may move through the North Carolina counties 
this morning. Some isolated shower or storm activity is possible 
areawide by late morning and early afternoon as the ridge starts to 
break down. By mid afternoon, coverage will be isolated to scattered 
with summerlike pulse showers and storms expected with very warm 
temperatures with highs in the lower 80s again today in the TN 
Valley.

By this evening, widespread showers and storms are expected as a 
cold front approaches. This system will have good upper level 
support with a trough making it into the Southeast. At the surface, 
the parent low will move through the Great Lakes bringing a cold 
front through the region early Sunday morning. A few strong storms 
cannot be ruled out but instability looks very low with storm timing 
late in the evening. Dew points will only get into the lower 60s in 
the Tennessee Valley. Much of the region will get a much needed rain 
with forecast rain totals around one inch. 

Southwesterly winds will be gusty today ahead of this system with 
gusts around 25 mph expected in the TN Valley at times. Gusts will 
be a bit higher in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills but 
will likely stay below Wind Advisory criteria (gusts 40 mph+) with 
850 mb winds peaking around 30-35 knots with more of a southwesterly 
wind direction that is not as favorable for downslope enhancement. 
Though I would not be surprised if some of the tallest peaks hit 40-
45mph but it will likely not be widespread enough for an advisory.

Rain will start to taper off Sunday morning as a much cooler air 
mass moves into the region. Highs from Sunday through Tuesday will 
be closer to seasonal normals in the 60s. Much cooler than recent 
weather. Frost may be a concern Monday through Wednesday mornings 
especially for the northern half of the region and the mountains. 
Dry weather will continue through the workweek and a warming trend 
will start Wednesday with highs getting into the 70s through Friday 
for most of the TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR TAFs to continue until arrival of TS later in the period.
Southwest winds to gust back to 20 knots this afternoon. A few 
scattered rain showers or thunderstorms likely this afternoon, 
mainly in northeastern TN. A PROB30 at KTRI is to account for that
activity. Otherwise a decaying line of thunderstorms and 
stratiform rain will be approaching late in the period tonight. 
Timing is close to a 6z arrival for KCHA and KTYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  54  69  45 /  40 100  50   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  54  67  42 /  40 100  60   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  53  67  41 /  30 100  40   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  54  65  38 /  50  90  70   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


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